My Forecast is Gloomy with a Light Mist

Some time ago I posted a blog about the unbelievable high valuations of public companies in relationship to private company valuation models (note; public companies are always valued higher than private companies for obvious, and not so obvious, reasons—but that is not what I’m talking about).  In short, the market value of companies makes no economic sense.  Well, now they have gotten even higher.  Why?

I have no answer as to why.  The stock market should represent the value of a company based on its financial performance and the anticipated future performance of both the company and the overall economy.  That future window is often months out and can be years.  The future analysis is, of course, skewed by speculation, which does not have to follow any logic (see bubbles).  So here we are in a pandemic recession, grave doubt about the future economy, huge questions marks about our whole social and economic system, during a highly confrontational presidential election; the stock market has gone up.  I see no logic in that. 

My financial experience (in case you forgot or didn’t know—I’m a CPA whose career involved private company transactions) as a business valuation expert suggests the market is being driven by factors we do not completely understand.  Maybe this is behind the curtain stuff, but for some reason “normal” logic is not driving the stock market. 

What is my point?  I don’t have one.   It is just an observation from someone with a little knowledge on the subject.  (Full disclosure; I’m often wrong about all kinds of things!)

My foray into the indie book world and now into the on-line art sites has me amazed at the abundance of talent that exists in our confusing world.  If you look at the top art sites, they claim to represent something close to a million artists selling a vast array of art.  Now some of this art does not suit my tastes, but it is an amazing display of people creating all kinds of art; much of it fantastic. 

The internet is obviously a mixed bag of good and bad (lots of hate out there).  But if you look you will see a vast sea of individuals worldwide creating things, all sorts of things.  Books, art, crafts, jewelry, sculptures, poetry and on and on.  The amazing thing is that this is mostly individuals working alone creating something unique to express themselves without any clear objective other than to create.  It is very human.

When I first started writing I read a lot of articles and books about how to achieve success.  A common theme was to write the best book you can and continue to write.  Good books in quantity was an often-mentioned path to success.  After some years of sticking with that approach I have come to a new conclusion.  Bullshit!  The path to success is blocked with a sign that says, “pay here.”

Of course, the first thing we need to do is define success.  My goal in writing was to make money.  There was the creative side, but let’s be honest, the goal was money.  Not a huge sum but a useful sum.  Each of us can define what that sum might be.  I now have ten books in the marketplace, and they generate a sum of money I would consider useful.  Not huge, but useful.  So, have I met my goal.  No way in hell.

Because I have spent a substantial portion of the income on promoting, advertising, hawking, yelling about those books to be able to generate that useful sum.  Okay, does that mean I’m giving up.  No way.  I’m just saying that the so-called path to success may work for a few, but for most writers I think it’s a pipe-dream. 

I read somewhere that there are over a million fiction eBooks on Amazon.  And of those books, almost half have not sold a single book in over a year.  Now, I can’t remember my source, and maybe I got that wrong, but if true that is amazing.  Is that several hundred thousand authors who have books available but did not sell one?  What is their dream?  Many of those books could be trash and shouldn’t sell, but they could also be treasures and not sell one.  The reason?  Advertising.  Spend a thousand dollars on Amazon advertising, and you will sell your book; trash or not.

If I were starting today, I would spend less time worrying about the quality of my book and more time understanding how to promote my book.  And, of course, books in a series are a better way to sell more books—but the reason is because they fit an advertising model that maximizes the return on your promotion dollar.  It is about marketing, nothing else.  And who benefits from that model: Amazon.

I had plans to introduce a new series of small business books (SuccessPaths) starting about now.  I was doing that even though the pandemic had changed almost everything about business, because I thought the basic info was still valid.  Decided I was wrong.  My plan now is to rewrite the books and plan on a pub date sometime in mid-2021 or later.  Reality is that much has changed and more will in the future related to small business.  Time to wait and see if the sky clears.

Thanks for being a reader!

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Ted Clifton, award winning author, is currently writing in three mystery series—Pacheco & Chino Mystery series, the Muckraker Mystery series and the Vincent Malone series. Clifton’s focus is on strong character development with unusual backdrops. His books take place in Southwest settings with some of his stories happening in the 1960s, 1980s and current times. The settings are places Clifton has lived and knows well, giving great authenticity to his narratives. Clifton has received the IBPA Benjamin Franklin award and the CIPA EVVY award--twice. Ted is also an artist. Much of his work, digital, acrylic and watercolor, has been inspired by living in New Mexico for many years. Today Clifton and his wife reside in Denver, Colorado, with frequent visits to one of their favorite destinations, Santa Fe, New Mexico.

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