Ted Clifton's Grain of Salt Commentary

For lots of reasons, mostly beyond my control, still have not produced an audio book.  Was in the process with Santa Fe Mojo but that fell apart.  Have some discussions going on about Dog Gone Lies; and, hopefully, in a few months that ends up with an audio book version. 

One of the steps in this latest process was to ask for auditions for a narrator.  Somewhat overwhelmed by the response.  Not only was the number of respondents large, but the overall quality of the narration auditions was amazing.  There are some very talented people narrating audio books. 

I’ll keep you informed as this moves along; and hopefully, will actually end up with a real audio book.

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I have beat this drum before.  More “reading is good for you” thoughts from the Healthline web site.

“Research shows that regular reading:

• improves brain connectivity
• increases your vocabulary and comprehension
• empowers you to empathize with other people
• aids in sleep readiness
• reduces stress
• lowers blood pressure and heart rate
• fights depression symptoms
• prevents cognitive decline as you age
• contributes to a longer life

That’s an impressive list.  And, of course, as a bonus you might enjoy whatever your reading.

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Just finished reading an author interview (no reason to mention his name), who was bragging about being able to write a book in a week.  Besides being an annoying individual, he seems to think he has accomplished something of value.  Let me be clear, I have not read this guy’s books, and it was not clear in the interview if these are 5,000 word “books” or if they are 70,000; but the idea that streamlined books produced in a matter of minutes has merit felt wrong to me.

I have mentioned on several occasions that the best path to success in the e-book world seems to be to have a large number of books all in one series –by large I mean 40, 60 or more.  So the annoying author in the interview is using his speed writing skill to take advantage of a market—I should admire him more, but I don’t. 

I’m a fast writer (when I can stay focused on one project) and would consider it an accomplishment to write a whole novel in two to three months; I can’t imagine how you can write an entire book in only a few days.  Of course, if you can, more power to you; but I don’t think I would brag about it.

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I have not read much about this, but as I was listening to auditions for a narrator for Dog Gone Lies, it crossed my mind:  would I have written differently if I was writing just for an audio book?  Reading a book out loud seems to change the feeling of the narrative.  Sometimes in good ways and sometimes in bad ways.  Thinking about incorporating reading my new books out loud as part of the editing process.  I think some authors do that; but I have not.  On the other-hand, if the book was written with a focus on how it sounds, would it become more of a play with author notes than a book?  All I know for sure is that the book sure sounds different with someone reading than with my voice in my head.

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One of the benefits of reading, as listed above, is “empowers you to empathize with other people”.  Understanding flawed characters in the context of their world does expand our sympathy for less than perfect humans.  In most of our lives there are very few people we get to know well enough to know their inner faults and still care about the individual.  In books, that is almost all characters of interest.  It gives us insight without the pain of dealing with a flawed friend. 

I have mentioned this before, all of my characters are flawed.  Not because I think all humans are like that; but a character in a novel would be very boring if they were perfect.  The flaws make them real. 

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Good to see March roll around.  I can definitely say I’m tired of winter.  Besides falling and breaking my arm while shoveling snow, I have been unusually blue this winter—and that is not smurf blue.  Very little writing going on.  When I’m not engaged with my writing everything seems slightly off.  Maybe warmer weather will lead to a productive year after all—and a more upbeat blog.

My goal for the year is still the same; two new fiction books– Durango Two Step (Vincent Malone #4) and a surprise second book along with a non-fiction business book.  Also very excited about the possibilities of some audio books for all of you non-reader readers (or is that listeners).  By the way those health bennies for reading are probably not the same for listening—but you could be jogging while listening, which would be a major health benefit.

Mentioned last week that I might use repeats for the blog this week due to my arm injury; but, good news, writing (typing) is not causing me any complications.  Thinking is sometimes on the blink, but that’s a different problem.

This blog focuses on books and writing, especially indie books.  While writing is a passion for many authors, the money side of this activity is a big factor in what is written and what is read.  Keep in mind most authors write because it gives them something that is important, regardless of the money; but a little money would not hurt. 

A friend of mine passed along a white paper from the Author’s Guild titled “The Profession of Author in the 21^st Century.”  Many pages of stats and interesting detail.  Let me summarize—it is bleak.  Most authors today cannot make a living just writing, much less only producing books.  If you are looking for a good paying profession, consider something else.

No big news to anyone associated with book writing and publishing.  A few top authors make tons of money, everybody else barely survives.  Publishers are only paying good advances to sure-thing celebrity (or at least famous [is that different?]) authors.  Tell-all political gossip books look lucrative.

The real world consequences of this is very possibly, almost nothing.  You can bemoan the fact that literature as a word may not have much meaning in the future—but who cares?  The readers?  The authors?  Literature means: written works, especially those considered of superior or lasting artistic merit.  Maybe that world has already gone?

The white paper places a lot of the blame on Amazon.  As an indie author I have a love/hate relationship with Amazon.  The publishing world was once totally controlled by a few people in New York (okay, it still is), who would not have given me the time it took to say no.  The business model of the major publishers (of which there are only five) incorporates a snobbery that’s more like royalty than anything relatable to “best practices” (or for that matter common sense).  The fact that the publishing world has become more challenging and less controlling of all things related to books is no doubt good news.  Or is it?  Or who gives a shit?  But why blame elitist publishers for the dark cloud over book publishing when you can blame Amazon and its computers?

Without Amazon my books probably wouldn’t even exist.  Self-publishing existed long before Amazon; but it was targeted to a different audience.  Self-publishers once offered personal attention and care for a price.  These vanity projects resulted in a few books being distributed by the author to their friends and family; not much impact on the “real” book world.  Amazon offered something new, a presence in the book market place to almost anyone who wanted it.  How you presented yourself in the market was up to you; but the market was open.  Amazon changed self-publishing from a small number of vanity projects to a large (way too many) number of indie authors who are producing a million plus books a year.  More books than can or will be read.

The downside of Amazon is the devaluing of books themselves.  There are many readers today who only read free or almost free books.  It is the same thing that happened to music.  Free sounds reasonable to the consumer.  Maybe the consumer is stupid and thinks these creative things just arise by themselves with no effort or cost; why shouldn’t they be free, or maybe the consumer says; if you, as the creative person behind these things, offers them to me for free—you’re the stupid person, not me.  The real stupidity is ever offering these creative works for free in the first place.  But when the competition is so intense for visibility in the vastness of millions of books, what are the options.  The only winner in any of this is Amazon, which, of course, is what creates the resentment and eventually the hate.

The ugly side of market dominance is that Amazon gets to make the rules.  Indie authors have no power and thus make little money.  There are exceptions; but they are few.  I’m not sure literature is dead, but I think it is seriously wounded.  The major publishers want proven winners or at least famous/infamous names, that leaves little room for serious, but unknown, authors.  The indie author’s path to success seems to be writing a large number of books with a new book every three months or so tied into an ongoing series; not exactly the path toward literature.  I tend to think that literature was dead a long time ago, we just didn’t notice; because there was no sizable audience for such writing.

My books have no pretentions towards literature, they are written to be entertainment.  Still they’re worth more than free; but that’s on me, nobody else.  When I started writing I thought I could make a little money writing and that is exactly what has happened; I make a little.  At least it’s not zero.

In the Author’s Guild white paper, they seemed to suggest solutions that had something to do with Amazon not having such a vice grip on the industry, they would probably return to the “good-old-days”, when snooty agents manned the gates to the publishing world; not sure that is better.  Maybe a guaranteed income to all creative people?  Why do I think that would increase the number of creative people; but not creative results.  

The only way to force Amazon to share more of the wealth would be if it benefited them; which it wouldn’t.  Every day there are thousands of new authors offering Amazon a consignment product and if it sells –giving Amazon a percentage. Plus, those same saps pay Amazon to advertise their books on Amazon, so Amazon can make money selling more books, and also make money not selling those books.  You’ve got to admire their system—it is designed to do one thing; make them money—and it works.

I will write another book or maybe two or –hell who knows how many; and will not make much money.  Why?  I think many creative people are masochists and I might be one.  Or they gain a sense of personal worth that has more value than just money—not sure about that either.  Before I wrote books I painted pictures—I’ve made ten times the money writing as painting—so I guess, I’m moving up in the world.  Thanks Amazon.

A sad note. Clive Cussler died this week. I read many of his books over the years and while I found the circumstances on some a little over-the-top, I loved them. Always a fun read.

He lived in the Denver area (where I live) and on several occasions thought about trying to make contact; never did. Interesting that this week’s blog is about making money writing books, Cussler was supposedly worth about $120 million; now that is writing success. He will be missed.

Winters in Colorado can be mild or not so mild.  Snow and ice are normal, usually welcomed as part of this beautiful world.  However, along with this joy of white landscapes comes shoveling.  Until that big one shows up with heavy wet snow measured in feet, I kinda enjoy shoveling the snow.  It’s one of those little accomplishments that helps us feel productive.  But on an occasion there is an oops.  I had an oops.  Slipped on the ice and took a not so acrobatic tumble.  After some brief moments of “what just happen isms”, got up and managed to make it inside.  Falling on the ice comes so swiftly that there is no chance to anticipate or dread; one second you’re just fine; and the next, flat on your back with many areas of pain.  And, the worse part, there is no one to blame except yourself.

Net result, I broke my arm.  Writers do not need broken arms.  Good news is that my arm movements are only restricted– did not need a cast.  With a little office re-engineering and a lower table for my keyboard, I’m typing again; just a little slower. 

Obviously this causes some complications with this blog and my progress on current book projects.  I am able to write, just much slower and with many, many rest breaks.  This will have impact on the blog, newsletter and other writing for about a month (I hope no longer than that).  But none of that will stop completely.

This week’s blog (and probably next) will be reprints from past blogs.  After that, my plan is to get back to my normal pattern.  Thanks for your patience.

Fewer Readers Reading Less

I grew up in a household where reading was honored.  This was mostly based on my father’s love of books.  There wasn’t a lot of family discussion about books, but it was obvious they were important.  My father’s bookcase was held in high regard and given a prime location in the living space.  Both of my parents grew up in households that did not have a lot of possessions.  Books would have been a luxury.  My father in particular was raised in very humble conditions.  As his own new family became more prosperous in post WWII America he purchased books and they became his treasures, a luxury he had never experienced as a child.  Coming from this background reading became a habit and a source of great pleasure for me.  Reading books was something I just did, it was natural.

Taking an unscientific survey during Thanksgiving, it is apparent people are reading less and in many cases not at all.  I have read the stories about the decline in hours spent reading books and knew this was happening; but it is still kind of shocking to talk to relatives and realize the new normal is to not read; at all.  Not one book in years or maybe decades, I can’t imagine not reading.  Of course, I write books so I have lots of reasons to be shocked at this trend.

And it is a trend.  The decline in reading has been going on for a couple of decades.  Lots of factors but the most likely culprit is TV.  You would think the number of hours spent watching TV would have peeked somewhere in the past and leveled off, nope.  It is increasing.  People are watching more and more television.  Some of this, I’m sure, is due to the increased options being offered, streaming services and vast numbers of channels on cable.  With the average hours of daily TV watching increasing substantially in the last ten years; there is no time to read.

Reading, TV watching, smoking are all habits.  Once you stop some activity the habit goes away and usually something else fills that need.  TV apparently has filled the entertainment, information need of books.  Many people will think so what, entertainment and information from TV is just as good as books.  Maybe so; but most experts (whoever they are), say it is not the same.

In an article for The New Yorker, Caleb Crain observes: “In a culture of secondary orality, we may be less likely to spend time with ideas we disagree with,” (He) wrote. “I suspected that people might become less inclined to do fact checking on their own; forced to choose between conflicting stories, they would “fall back on hunches.”  Note– “secondary orality”—(is) a sociological term for a post-literate culture.

A post-literate culture–doesn’t that sound alarming?  To me it does.  Our brains function in certain ways and it matters how we get our information.  Reading seems to reinforce many good qualities about “thinking” that do not seem to transfer to such things as television watching.

I don’t have any answers to this trend of fewer readers reading less; but I do find it disturbing.  And not because of book sales.  I think it makes us less capable of deeper more complex thoughts.  I believe we lose the ability to digest nuances in all sorts of matters, from basic living circumstances, to politics to personal relationships.   I also believe we become more susceptible to misinformation; especially well-crafted propaganda.

Or maybe it is more simple than brain functions declining; it is that the love of books is disappearing.  It makes me sad.

Last week I spent a little time discussing business valuations for both private and public companies as a lead in to my new SuccessPaths series of business “how to” books; no doubt, super boring.  Sorry, here’s a little follow-up.  Had some input from people asking about companies that are worth billions that have never made a profit—how can that happen?

The quick, easy answer is that it’s all bullshit.  Hype on a huge scale.  The more detailed answer is that it is based on an assumption about the future, best described as wild-ass guesses.  Take Uber for example.  Imagine being involved in the first presentations regarding Uber.  They were going to take on a tired, stale basic service industry that did not offer much service, the taxi industry.  With tech innovation they will improve the service, solve the labor issue and will be able to scale up at a rapid and massive rate.  Going from one city to thousands almost overnight using a vast labor pool; the general public.  By-passing regulation authorities with a combination of technology hype and political clout.  This model could go from zero revenue to billions in revenue in the blink-of-an-eye.

If you were concerned about profitability you were just an old-school, out-of-touch worry-wort of the past.  It will become so big; profits will just fall out by magic.  The magic didn’t happen; or if you believe the company, has not happened yet.

The company has a market value of $70 billion, revenue of $3.1 billion.  The founders and initial investors have made billions for themselves; so where is the problem?  It loses money; lots of money.  Without investment capital Uber would be bankrupt.  Somewhere in the future, those chickens will come home to roost.

This is speculation on steroids.  The value has no meaning other than the off chance that it can figure a way to profit from the massive size of the enterprise.  Much of the speculation about profits now centers on something never mentioned at the beginning; monetizing the vast data base and self-driving cars.  Or, in other words: magic.

Uber is one of many examples of the power of free money.  If you can entice investments on a large enough scale you can achieve a burst of “success” while failing.  With enough money almost anything can look plausible for a certain amount of time.  Much of the hype around innovative, new companies is that their business model has not been proven.  That also means it has not been proven wrong!  So most of the invested capital will be spent to prove the business “idea” works.  But by “works”, we mean can it make a profit?

Let’s go back to Uber.  Until the company can show a path to profits and then demonstrate that path is working there may not be any value there at all.  So a company worth $70 billion might be worth zero?  In the common sense world that would be true; but in the speculative world of crap shooting investments the value could climb to $100 billion on nothing but promise and hope.  So if you invested at $70B and sold at $100B, you’re very happy.

Is that wrong?  Of course not.  As long as investors understand the risk and freely chose to invest based on some future out-come; that is not wrong and is at the heart of most high-return investments and the speculation that drives them. 

Businesses exist primarily to make money, so profits do matter.  But with enough “free money” the business can survive while searching for those profits and everything will be great (someday); unless it isn’t.

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Back to books and writing.  Interesting reader review for Murder So Wrong.

Realistic read February 5, 2020

As a reader who grew up in Oklahoma City, the setting of the story, the detail is so realistic as to make one wonder if this is a lightly disguised report of true happenings. Either way, it seems real and reads well.

That was one of the best reviews I have read on any of my books.  Murder So Wrong is a story based on true events and to have a reader say it “seems real” is absolutely great.  While the basis of the books in this series is based on true events the stories are fictional; totally made up.  Writing non-fiction books about true events is much harder work; tons of research, fact checking, interviews etc.  My forte is just making stuff up; but still I want it to seem like it could have happened, even if it didn’t.  Thank you very much reader for your kind words.

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A few weeks ago I had some thoughts about the controversy surrounding the new book American Dirt.  One comment I made was that even with the massive negative reaction, all of the hype would only promote more books sales; and sure enough, American Dirt is number one on Amazons most sold list.

Interesting side note, number one on the most read list (digital subscription services) is Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.

Controversy and celebrity will still sell a lot of books; but if you just want to read a good book, go back to a well written and entertaining story.

Most of my life has been as a businessman, not a writer.  My first love was art.  Even in college my desire was to be an artist.  I was a creative person who desired a career doing just that—being creative.  Like a lot of people, those first impulses didn’t work out.  I needed to make a living and someone said CPAs made a lot of money—so why not.  It’s only my life we’re talking about.  What could be wrong with being stuck at a desk the rest of your life crunching numbers?  The answer, of course, was a lot.

What does it mean to be creative?  When I was painting, it meant creating an image of something that was unique, or interesting, or appealing or something?  If my painting of a tree looked just like the tree, was that creative?  How about just taking a photo of the tree, was that creative.  I think my art career never happened because I struggled with images that were not unique.  I wanted to paint a tree that didn’t look like a tree, but was the essence of the tree.  Even I didn’t understand what that meant. 

Okay, forget the tree, I will become a creative accountant.  Of course the first unique image that popped into my head was a jail cell for being a too creative accountant —not a good image.  I dropped the creative part and spent a good deal of time just becoming a good accountant.  It’s not as bad as it sounds.  I enjoyed numbers and seemed to have a talent for crunching them.  I achieved a level of success that was rewarding, but not fulfilling.

Prior to becoming an accountant, I had been self-employed in several endeavors.  From food service to retail, I had owned my own businesses.  I had some success and also experienced failure, but during this time I realized I enjoyed business.  It was like a puzzle.  Lots of pieces to move around and try to figure out how they all fit together to generate sales and a profit.  Not every day, but on many it actually felt creative.

Next came my period of working for giant corporations which was not so creative.  Mostly what I learned from that experience was lots of nuts and bolts accounting and that most top executives were assholes.  Maybe that MBA stood for something else?  Most of the successful people I met had one thing in common, they were bullies.  There were, of course, exceptions but by far the most practiced management style was intimidation.  The age I’m talking about was total alpha male domination, so that might have been the reason; but being kind, considerate, thoughtful or even deceit were traits honored at home and abandoned at work.  The world is still full of those people; be very cautious.

After the big company nonsense, I found much greater joy and success working for myself and several smaller companies.  The biggest difference, other than the people seemed more human, was the appreciation of creativity.  Innovation is the life-blood of smaller businesses.  I’ve always been an idea-guy and eager to share opinions.  My biggest business successes were with companies that appreciated the innovation and my willingness to try new ideas.  At this point in my life I had the right combination of experience, knowledge and guts to try things others wouldn’t—it failed on occasion and succeeded every once in a while.  In many ways I had solved the business puzzle.

Now, I write fiction books.  Writing is obviously creative—I’m making stuff up; can’t get much more creative than that.  I enjoy the process of thinking about the story, the characters and devising the plot twists with subtle hints.  But what is not fun; is the business of writing.  As an indie author I have complete control over every aspect of what I do.  Or said another way, I have almost no help in doing what I do.  This is not the writing part, have lots of help with editors and designers; this is the business side.  Selling the books, planning marketing, making a profit. 

You would think with my business background this would be a snap.  It’s not.  The main reason is that it is very limited.  There are some variables, but mostly the decisions are; do you go exclusive with Amazon or more broadly with a few others?  Do you sell your books at x or 2x?  Do you have free books?  Do you advertise on Amazon, Bookbub, Facebook or others?

I’ve been doing this for years now; and I’ve tried most everything at least once.  None of it works really well.  Ads are expensive and the return is questionable.  Free books generate interest, but it is hard to make much money from free.  You can go wide and thumb your nose at Amazon, but probably it costs you sales; still tempting.  So-called experts, usually selling something, say develop your brand; establish your presence on social media—no doubt it helps, but only a little.  Most people advising indie authors are making a lot more money than the indie authors.  The real advice might be find a market niche full of desperate people and sell than advice like “try harder.”

It is a new year and time to stop whining and do something different.  Be creative.  Be innovative.  Okay, I’m willing; but not sure what that is?

I’m afraid the indie author phenomena powered by e-books and Amazon has created a creative glut of decent books that nobody knows about.  Maybe even great books that go unread; because there are literally tons of books available and not enough time to read a small fraction of that quantity.   

Maybe it’s time to pull out the paint and brushes and create a tree that looks just like a tree but isn’t and suffer in silence.

This original art is for sell for $7,500,000.  I’m going with the concept of only needing one really rich dumb ass and life will be great.  It’s a very creative concept!